[Rockhounds] OT: Does anyone know a rockhound named Kreigh around Oakdale...

Sun Mar 8 20:55:04 PDT 2009

Pete,

When Tina and I did the Rockhounds Survey a few years ago we confirmed 
with the AFMS they had about 55,000 members in the United States. Your 
estimate is probably good, and I think the assumption about rockhounds 
not in a club is reasonable.

But other statistics (posted by Carol Bova) shows my name only occurs 
once in about 702,000, instead of 50 per million in the US population. 
That would lower the upper limit to about 0.15 rockhounds named Kreigh.

Are you sure I am not a figment of your imagination? We've gone 
collecting together. Reality is stranger than we can imagine. I'm told 
anything can be 'proved' by statistics.

Yup, I'm looking for a needle in a haystack. Since I'm looking for a 
rockhound, I could not think of a better place to look than on this 
List.

I still have hopes of finding the other rockhound named Kreigh, even if 
I don't exist.

Kreigh

On Sunday, Mar 8, 2009, at 22:23 America/Detroit, Pmodreski at aol.com 
wrote:

> Hi folks,
>
> Allow me to try to apply some scientific analysis to the question  of 
> "How
> many rockhounds are there likely to be, with Kreigh's first  name?".
>
> A website that is very interesting/amusing to browse is "Baby Name 
> Wizard",
> which depicts nicely programmed graphs showing the frequency of girl's 
> and
> boy's  names in the U.S., broken down into every decade since the 
> 1880s.
> _http://www.babynamewizard.com/voyager_
> (http://www.babynamewizard.com/voyager)
>
> So my first step was to see if Kreigh's name appears on their list, 
> which
> gives the 1000 most common names.  It does not; but even from this we 
> can
> estimate an upper limit to the frequency of "Kreighs" in the U.S.  
> Some of  the
> boys' names that rank near the bottom of the most frequent 1000 list, 
> are  shown
> to occur with an average frequency of approximately 50 names per 1 
> million
> people in the U.S.  So, let's assume that an upper limit for the 
> number of
> "Kreighs" in the U.S. would be 50 per 1 million, or, for a U.S. 
> population of  300
> million, 300 x 50 = less than 15,000 Kreighs.  (It could, of course, 
> be  MUCH
> less, if Kreigh were a really really rare and unusal name.)
>
> Next we want to know how many rockhounds there are in the U.S.  Trying 
>  to do
> some web searching for this number, I really could not find it.  I'm  
> sure
> such an estimated number is know--for example, one could look at the 
> total
> membership of the AFMS affiliated clubs, and I'm sure that number has 
> been
> mentioned in print now and then in AFMS newsletters or elsewhere, but 
> if it  appears
> anywhere on their website, it is well buried and not findable by simple
> searching.  However, I did find one website that notes "there are over 
> 900
> rockhound clubs in the U.S.".  So let's say for round numbers, there 
> are  1000
> clubs, with 100 members each.  The 100 may be an overestimate, but  
> that will allow
> for all the rockhounds (likely perhaps, an equal number or more)  who 
> don't
> belong to a club.  So let's say for good round numbers, that  there 
> are 1000 x
> 100 = 100,000 rockhounds in the U.S.
>
> So, if there are an estimated not more than 15,000 Kreighs in the 
> U.S., and
> the probability of a U.S. resident being a rockhound is 100,000 / 
> 300,000,000
> =  1/3000, then there should be an estimated 15,000/3000 = 5 Kreighs 
> in this
> country who are rockhounds.
>
> There you go, Kreigh, so, there are 5 of you, and since one of them is
> already you, there are just 4 more (or less, of course).  Shouldn't be 
> that  tough
> a job to find them!  No worse than 4 needles in a haystack?
>
> cheers,
> Pete
> (P.S., but really, we all know that there is only ONE Kreigh... and 
> surely
> of course, only one Kreigh Tomaszewski  (I didn't look it up... wonder 
> how
> close I got to spelling that right?).  (Ah, now I checked below--I got 
> it  right!)
>
>
>
> In a message dated 3/6/2009 7:25:19 P.M. Mountain Daylight Time,
> Kreigh at tomaszewski.net writes:
>
> I got an  unusual inquiry today via my website...
>
> I had a friend,  mentor, named Richard XXXXXXX.
> He had a friend named Kreigh,  who was a rockhound. This Kreigh gave
> him a oval geode with  fluid inside that was millions of years old.
> I was wondering  if you are that friend.
> Richard, lived in Oakdale, CA. as I  did. I believe the year was 1996
> or 97.
> The  spelling of your name is unique, as I hadn't heard of that
> spelling until I met Richard's friend for only a few minutes.
> Please let me know if you are or aren't Richard's friend.
>
> It wasn't me.  I've never lived in California. But it got me wondering.
> My name is  somewhat unusual. AFMS says there are about 55,000
> rockhounds in the  United States that are members of clubs. The
> membership of this List  approaches 1% of US rockhounds. Would it be
> possible to track down the  rockhound who shares my unusual name?
>
> If you belong to a club in  California, would you please check your 
> club
> roster and see if there is a  Kreigh? Personal contact details should
> probably be shared off-list if you  find the other Kreigh.
>
> Thanks!
>
> Kreigh
>
>
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